CON fused

[albion99]

The longer I am on here the more confused I become, what constitutes a rare programme?
Presumably scarcity and the desire from one or more to own that item?
For instance, would a Scottish Cup 1st Round match between Brechin City and Celtic played on 28th January 1950 fall in to a rare category, or is it negated by it involving Celtic?

[kcs]

The best way I can answer this is supply and demand.
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[Wullie]

albion99 wrote:

The longer I am on here the more confused I become, what constitutes a rare programme? Presumably scarcity and the desire from one or more to own that item? For instance, would a Scottish Cup 1st Round match between Brechin City and Celtic played on 28th January 1950 fall in to a rare category, or is it negated by it involving Celtic?

A good question. If Manchester United played a non league team in the cup and the printers had a disaster and "only " 3000 programmes were printed this would be a very rare programme. A week later and the non league club went back to league duties and produced their usual 150 programmes , these would not be rare.
If a 1900 football programme turned up , between two unfashionable clubs then it would be mega rare as it would probably be the only one that existed. But it wouldn't be rare as there would be no interest from anyone to pay a high figure for it. BUT, if a Chelsea reserve teamsheet from 1972 turned up then ...... yes i'm confused I agree , supply and demand. A programme can be rare, but not expensive. A programme can be expensive, but not rare....

[Jim LFC]

I once heard a story of a North Western dealer buying a few thousand Stoke programmes direct from the club for a postponed game. He then proceeded to destroy the vast majority of them to push the value up of the remaining issues.

Did anyone else hear about this?!

[manchesterunitedman1]

Jim LFC wrote:

I once heard a story of a North Western dealer buying a few thousand Stoke programmes direct from the club for a postponed game. He then proceeded to destroy the vast majority of them to push the value up of the remaining issues. Did anyone else hear about this?!

Maybe it was Bazza with a Manc accent

[nozer]

Darlaston v Kettering F.A.Cup76 been reliably informed by the guy who was in charge of selling these on the night that only 200 of these were printed and sold out in fifteen mins ...attendance was 1,300, took me years to track one down so yes i would recon this one could be classed has "rare"

[Rocon17]

Wullie wrote:

albion99 wrote: The longer I am on here the more confused I become, what constitutes a rare programme? Presumably scarcity and the desire from one or more to own that item? For instance, would a Scottish Cup 1st Round match between Brechin City and Celtic played on 28th January 1950 fall in to a rare category, or is it negated by it involving Celtic? A good question. If Manchester United played a non league team in the cup and the printers had a disaster and "only " 3000 programmes were printed this would be a very rare programme. A week later and the non league club went back to league duties and produced their usual 150 programmes , these would not be rare. If a 1900 football programme turned up , between two unfashionable clubs then it would be mega rare as it would probably be the only one that existed. But it wouldn't be rare as there would be no interest from anyone to pay a high figure for it. BUT, if a Chelsea reserve teamsheet from 1972 turned up then ...... yes i'm confused I agree , supply and demand. A programme can be rare, but not expensive. A programme can be expensive, but not rare....

I would put it differently. From an economics perspective, there are two dimensions that determine price (leaving aside condition). Rare and Desirable. Rare (R) meaning supply is limited, there are genuinely few existing copies (eg 1900 unfashionable prog). Desirable (D) meaning that there are many willing buyers (eg Man U fans in your example).
Market clearing price is therefore a function = R x D.
The most expensive being those being the rarest and most desirable.
Any programme (or collectable) that is not priced broadly according to this formula is an anomaly and is either a) a buying opportunity or b) overpriced.
Desirability varies over time (unpredictably) and Rarity increases predictably, albeit very slowly. Ideally, any buying decision will consider long-term (steady state) desirability, not transient demand. For example, prices for the 1/2/58 Arsenal v Man Utd programme were overbid in Jan/Feb 2008 as D temporarily increased due to the 50th anniversary of Munich.