Will the market ever recover?

[markb9060]

http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/JOB-.....1a01fe7145

Above is a link to an Ebay auction which saw 100 Manchester United programmes (including Champions League games) sell for 99p collect by person.

Is this a typical example of how programme collecting like many other markets has been slowly declining ever since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930`s)?

Some of us may argue that the old rarer programmes have held their value.....perhaps so but are they increasing in general?

Many of us like to say that the joy of collecting comes first with the value coming second or third or not at all. However there are also many who see it also as an investment with bargains to be had along the way etc.

I am probably not alone to admitting that quite often I paid a premium for much of my collection from about 2006 and although I am quite pleased and proud of this collection, I have to accept that it`s value has
depreciated considerably.

As for the rarer items quite often i`ve noticed on Ebay that sellers, when asking for a premium, see their items remain unsold. I appreciate that the auction house is probably a better option but is it possible that these high value lots only have appeal to a select few?

Please note the above paragraph ends with a question mark. I really don`t know as I`ve never been to an auction. All I do know is that the rarer items tend to go to a select few time and time again with the vast majority of collectors unable to compete, accepting that they will never own these items and therefore dropping out of that market through eventual lack of interest (possibly permanently?)

As for me, I`m about to start a new job after being made redundant two months ago. I bought myself a lovely (newish) set of wheels with the redundancy money so I`m all set to go.

As far as I`m concerned my money will be staying safely in my pocket until I get settled in my new job etc but perhaps next year I`ll just check out the market again to see if anything`s changed....

I hope so for the sake of all of us.

[pompeypete]

Programmes from the 60's just don't sell.......

As I'm getting on I was hoping to clear out my collection from the last 50 years, thinking they got to be worth a £1 each......'Wrong'

1940's hold their price. just and pre war....

But now reserves & friendlies can get a good price.

Just think when I started I could pick up those for less than half price...

cheap as chips

Trouble is I didn't bother.......what a fool.
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[goonerboy]

Depends on who you support but in general no it will never get to what it was because in the past dealers set the prices and with such limited selling options available to collectors the prices were steady. Now with eBay it is the market/collector who dictates prices. That combined with mass availability of programmes from 1960 onwards means it would require tens of thousands of new collectors to enter the hobby to even begin to make 60s,70s etc items even semi difficult to obtain. Sadly for most of us the financial value of our post 1960 collections is a fraction of what we paid to get them together. So you need to fallback on the fact that is is a hobby and enjoy those progs for that and sentimental value rather than investment value.

As you go back to earlier eras then the market should be steadier due to more scarcity but as more and more collectors fill their collections then prices will tend to decrease until the truly scarce items are identified. Of course some clubs will always be popular and so they will hold value better due to supply and demand.

One thing I have observed happening more and more over the last 2-3 years is a number of collectors trying to offload their post60s collections and often offering them as whole seasons. Even then a lot go unsold. But if you persevere and set a realistic price then eventually they will go although how long is "eventually" is difficult to define.

[Tynie Topics]

My own opinions is I don’t think there has been too much of a downturn as such, it’s just that the enormity of ebay has “adjusted” the market to reflect the supply and demand of programmes.

We’ve said before on here that pre-ebay, if a dealer said a programme was rare and wanted £200 for it, then all dealers would follow suit and that was the market price and that is the level you bought it at, regardless of how many copies were swilling around. Nowadays, many programmes are being offered on ebay eg. when they are discovered in lofts when someone passes away, and the market is setting the price not the dealers, so that £200 programme is now £50. If it was any rarer then there would be more demand/less supply and therefore the price would rise but it doesn’t. That won’t change as it was probably always a £50 programme in the first place, bad for those who bought at £200 (I’ve been there) but there you go.

The truly rarer items will probably always command a premium, however the flip side of that as has been touched on is that there appears to be a finite market for these with generally only a handful of collectors battling over these items. When these collectors drop out of the market, if there are nobody to replace them the value of the items will drop significantly. I don’t think we’re at that stage just yet, we might never see that as all it needs is one or two collectors entering the high value market every few years to keep it going, then there is the unknown quantity of increasing interest from out with the UK, Russia being an example.

Then there’s the modern day programmes, your 100 Man Utd for 99p. I think most collectors accept that run-of-the-mill programmes will never be an investment. Completists probably know that they’ll likely never get their £3.00 back for last weeks league issue against Leicester even 50 years from now, but that’s the price they are willing to pay to keep their collection upto date. Again, ebay has saturated the market with cheap modern day programmes, that will never change.

Bottom line is that you do not collect run-of-the-mill modern day programmes as an investment.

None of that should worry those who collect because they enjoy it and don’t really care too much what the sell on value is. If however you collect with one eye on the investment angle, the advice is always buy quality.
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[manchesterunitedman1]

Goonerboy and Tynie offering some sound, sensible and accurate advice.

Quality is the byword in any collecting circles-hardly ever let's you down.

I am considering myself whether to stop the purchase of the current seasons home and away for the forthcoming season, space is the issue in the main for me-still undecided.

[markb9060]

manchesterunitedman1 wrote:

Goonerboy and Tynie offering some sound, sensible and accurate advise. Quality is the byword in any collecting circles-hardly ever let's you down. I am considering myself whether to stop the purchase of the current seasons home and away for the forthcoming season, space is the issue in the main for me-still undecided.

Nothing beats facts. Thanks everyone for your views, obsevations and general imput so far.

[grantham]

To be fair ebay is killing it's self and given enough rope, even bedroom bandits won't be able to sell for 99p soon
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[Dorking]

There is nearly always a good selection of 1930's Palace homes on ebay. I'm not saying you can name any game and just find it and buy it, but if you had £100 - £130 you could buy a home programme from any 1930s season within a fortnight. You would probably be the only person bidding.

(I've just checked on ebay and there are 13 on there right now)

I don't think any collectors have unlimited funds and can just go at it like a rich kid in a sweet shop, but I will say that with the internet 'collecting' has never been easier - almost too easy now!

There's always the thrill of a truly rare item when you eventually find it. But the majority of the 'hobby' is just too easy!

Most youngsters now would just collect the games they go to. You have to really be keen to immerse yourself in your clubs history and read all the books etc, then want to buy old programmes. When I was a kid with a little bit of pocket money, Shoot and Match both had adverts for old programmes, particularly Steve Earl. My son reads Match of the Day (but Match is very similar) and neither have classified adverts for that sort of stuff. It's just a few big full page adverts for expensive boots and FIFA video games now.

Can't see many youngsters starting now wanting to collect everything back to 1945 (or even a random start date since then) - it's a vast thing to attempt and takes all the spare space in a 3 bedroom house to accommodate it!!!! (you know what I mean lol)

[kenners46]

I think kids are more interested in computer games than collecting anything. I wanted my boy to enjoy collecting no matter what it was. He was into Dr Who so I started to buy him the Dr Who cards, he got a fair few and when I said to him we will get some cards on the way home from school he said no thanks so that ended that.

When he comes to Palace with me I offer him the programme to read and he says no thanks, me thinks I will have to start taking my girl instead.

[Tynie Topics]

With regards to kids coming into the hobby at a young age, perhaps that has largely disappeared and will never return, the internet, X-Box and wall-to-wall football coverage on TV have probably seen to that. There is so much more to interest them these days, even if they are showing signs of being die hard football fans.

Perhaps now the hobby has reached the point where it’s more mature collectors who are the newbies entering the hobby, those who have disposable income, maybe kids have grown up, and a hankering for the old days. Retro is big business and football is part of that.

The hobby itself needs to evolve, for example fairs in their current form need to evolve to offer so much more than just tables with programmes. Sports memorabilia fairs rather than football programme fairs. We also need to promote the hobby better, we need a national magazine on the shelves of newsagents.

A new magazine that is hitting shelves is European Football Weekends, and idea of one or two individuals to exploit the increasing popularity of doing just that, getting on a plane and going watching a few games abroad on a regular basis. It’s a travel/football mag and is fantastic. Look also at Backpass magazine, a retro football mag that exploits another niche.

I refuse to believe that there isn’t a niche for a Football/Sports memorabilia magazine, it just needs someone with the where-with-all to make it happen.

Just some thoughts!
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[bazzad]

Tynie Topics wrote:

With regards to kids coming into the hobby at a young age, perhaps that has largely disappeared and will never return, the internet, X-Box and wall-to-wall football coverage on TV have probably seen to that. There is so much more to interest them these days, even if they are showing signs of being die hard football fans. Perhaps now the hobby has reached the point where it’s more mature collectors who are the newbies entering the hobby, those who have disposable income, maybe kids have grown up, and a hankering for the old days. Retro is big business and football is part of that. The hobby itself needs to evolve, for example fairs in their current form need to evolve to offer so much more than just tables with programmes. Sports memorabilia fairs rather than football programme fairs. We also need to promote the hobby better, we need a national magazine on the shelves of newsagents. A new magazine that is hitting shelves is European Football Weekends, and idea of one or two individuals to exploit the increasing popularity of doing just that, getting on a plane and going watching a few games abroad on a regular basis. It’s a travel/football mag and is fantastic. Look also at Backpass magazine, a retro football mag that exploits another niche. I refuse to believe that there isn’t a niche for a Football/Sports memorabilia magazine, it just needs someone with the where-with-all to make it happen. Just some thoughts!

I tend to agree with you about the variety of stock that should be available at 'Programme' Fairs. I run the WEST LONDON PROGRAMME FAIR that will be held this Sunday at Emperors Gate. Although it is called a programme fair (perhaps we need to think about the title) there is plenty of other memorabilia and collectables available e.g. tickets, cigarette and trade cards, books, memorabilia.
I will certainly pop out and get the magazines that you have mentioned but must give some praise to PROGRAMME MONTHLY that is a much improved magazine now that it is edited by Paul Matz and until recently by Kevin) although I recognise that it is subscription and not available in the shops.
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[Tynie Topics]

Absolutely, Programme Monthly has certainly improved over the last few years, no doubt about it but it does have limited appeal due to the way it is produced and sold. It caters to a specialised market, nothing wrong with that.

If you go into a large WH Smith’s and go and have a look at the hobbies/collectables section there is a whole raft of magazines available a lot of which, to my eyes, are for obscure pastimes but they must sell otherwise they wouldn’t exist.

This is a sports mad nation we’re in, a football mad nation, so there has to be a market out there for a nationwide magazine covering sporting collectables, be that football, rugby, cricket, golf etc. That above anything else would help push the hobby of programme/football collecting into the spotlight.
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[BarnsleyCollector]

Picking up on the point of kids taking up the hobby.

My son is 22 and all through his young, adolescent years and now as a young man he has been football mad - he plays for the local team, watches Barnsley as often as he can and he will watch any match on TV from Premier League to Non League and he has a better knowledge than me on current footballers, who they have played for etc.

I would have thought that he would be the ideal type to take up the hobby and although he collected stickers when younger he shows very little interest in collecting anything now. He will read the current season programmes, but although he is probably more aware than others his age, he doesn't really show that much interest in the past histories or achievements of the club.

Even when I add to my collection and leave older programmes etc lying around the house he hardly ever shows much interest in what I am buying.

I haven't given up hope yet and maybe someday he may take an interest in what is in all those shoe boxes in the loft. Hopefully not just to flog them !

But what I am really saying is that if someone like my son - footy mad and a collection in the house at his fingertips to look at - isn't interested, then I really can't see many of his age taking up the hobby, unless like it has been said before it becomes a middle age thing to start looking back. There is always that hope....

[SADDLERSFAN]

It never has or never will be a young mans hobby.
Other interests include women, booze,fags, drugs, fighting, music etc etc etc.
Collectors of football memorabilia usually start when they are older and have more disposible income, and have no interest in any of the above

[markb9060]

SADDLERSFAN wrote:

It never has or never will be a young mans hobby. Other interests include women, booze,fags, drugs, fighting, music etc etc etc. Collectors of football memorabilia usually start when they are older and have more disposible income, and have no interest in any of the above

That certainly rings true with myself. Although I had a collection of programmes in my youth these were only from games I`d attended and bought as a keepsake of the memory of that game not thinking of them as a 'collection' as such.

It was only by sheer chance that I stumbled on some 1950s Manchester United programmes left in a loft that things changed. Even then I wasn`t thinking of adding to this small find but simply researched their pre-recession value.

Perhaps if I`d valued them now I still wouldn`t have got into the hobby!

Anyhow I think you`re spot on about youngsters generally speaking having too many other distractions to worry about boring old programmes.

[mustard68]

I agree with "saddlersfan"
It never was a young persons hobby.
Theres nothing problematic about that.
Its the middle aged who have the spare cash - and the time.
Judging by the sheer number of auctions and the competition for decent items, I think the hobby is in good shape.
Fairs are outdated and inefficient but they don't reflect the hobby as whole.

[Tynie Topics]

1. Start young, bargain bundles, games you go to, swap at school etc
2. Discover drink and women, collection goes into loft
3. Marriage, kids, mortgage
4. Life begins at 30-something, stumble across collection in loft
5. Start collecting seriously

That’s more or less the evolution of a collector for a lot of people.

However, given the dearth of kids even starting at number one, the new blood is maybe those going straight in at number four.
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[DySporting]

It depends on what you’re selling - on the whole I agree mainly the older the better -

Although I got given at the Luton auction in April a box of PNE programmes - they didn’t sell and were added to the lot I’d bought just before.

Those PNE programmes were from the 80’s - in there were complete sets of home programmes and some collectable games. They proved to be very very profitable. It shows sometimes things can surprise you.

As for the market dying, what I’ve noticed is its very club orientated - several clubs don’t sell well other such as Middlesbrough, Preston, Norwich do

[Eck]

I have a "Rangers only" selling page on facebook - sale or swap, nearly 500 in the group now and i've found the amount of new collectors of all ages quite staggering. Nobody is really interested in selling run of the mill items for 99p, I have picked up a couple of good swaps and sold some bulk to new collectors as well. You can't get people interested in the hobby by selling run of the mill at a quid each plus postage.
The Man U bulk is an unusual one, not the right time to sell either.

[MINSTERMAN]

Tynie Topics wrote:

1. Start young, bargain bundles, games you go to, swap at school etc 2. Discover drink and women, collection goes into loft 3. Marriage, kids, mortgage 4. Life begins at 30-something, stumble across collection in loft 5. Start collecting seriously That’s more or less the evolution of a collector for a lot of people.

I'm probably the only one of the 'start young' group in my circle who kept collecting when Tynie's stage2 tripped in.


Never regretted it, 40 years on and counting